Abstract

Author:

Aronu, C. O. and Echeta, C. A.

Doi: 10.26480/seps.01.2026.09.13

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

This study investigates the complex relationship between economic inflation and international travel in Nigeria from 2015 to 2020 through a detailed econometric analysis. It examines variables such as the Headline Inflation Rate (HIR), Core Inflation Rate (CIR), Food Inflation Rate (FIR), Percentage of Passengers Travelling Abroad (PPF), and Percentage of Aircraft Flying Abroad (PAF). The study aims to discern trends, establish relationships, and determine the cointegrating association between these variables. Using secondary data from the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study employs econometric tools like the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, unit root tests, descriptive statistics, and Cointegration analysis. The results reveal dynamic trends in travel and inflation rates, offering qualitative insights into the economy’s status. Unit root tests confirm the stationarity of variables, and ARDL co-integration tests establish a long-term connection between HIR, CIR, FIR, PPF, and PAF. Significant coefficients from long-term estimates highlight the impact of inflation on foreign travel. The ARDL (2, 6, 0, 5, 3) model captures complex interactions, enhancing model robustness. The study contributes significantly to understanding Nigeria’s economic dynamics, providing valuable insights for economists, legislators, and stakeholders. Policy recommendations focus on economic stability and strategic planning in aviation to manage economic cycles, laying a foundation for future research and policy development.